Facebook And Social Medium: Why The Future Is Scary

On the Internet, huge numbers are typical. Just search for anything on Google, and be rewarded with a “1 to 10 of 36 million results for…” or something similar.

We’re used to massive numbers for participation: ebay, Paypal, MySpace, and so forth.

Lately however, Facebook has been in the news, with upwards of 175 million members.

It’s large numbers as usual. But that represents a lot of flesh and blood people – so let’s put it into perspective.

Take for example television: the Oscars, at 36 million viewers, was a ratings success – but only one fifth of Facebook membership.

Superbowl? Huge. Super Bowl XLIII had about 95 million – just over half of Facebook membership.

And the classic all time viewed television program was the final episode of M*A*S*H, with 106 million viewers – only 60% of Facebook membership.

Or take countries – 175 million is roughly 1/2 the population of the whole United States, and is bigger than all but five countries in terms of population: China, India, United States, Indonesia, and Brazil.

Even with the big number of religious followers it’s still quite impressive: about 1/12 the size of Christianity, 1/9 the size of Islam, and over ten times the number of members of Judaism.

Is it any wonder online social media is influential?

Remember the constant buzz of American Idol? Yet this program only received about 35 million viewers at its peak – yet everyone was talking about the show.

Now here we have a single focus, with instant transmission, of 6 times that.

Put a message on Facebook central, and how long do you think it will take to make the rounds?

THAT is the power of social media – and why so many people talk about the power of blogs and social sites like MySpace and Facebook. The incredible influence of a huge number of people makes marketers salivate.

And if you’re in business, you might want to consider it too – after all, when was the last time you had an audience as large as Pakistan all in one place?

What Went Wrong With Open Source?

I admit I’ve been in a cave for the past decade or so – but remember when Open Source was the greatest thing since sliced bread?

Collaborative software and the philosophy that “to enough eyes, all bugs are small”. It sounded so good, and the future was so bright.

What happened?

I have a theory: we all got broke.

The fact of the matter is, Open Source is wonderful – but ask most OS folks, and they’ll tell you, it doesn’t put bread on the table.

Now I don’t want to fight anyone out there on this, and I’ll be happy to be proven wrong, but the fact of the matter is, when you have to work all day, and then do a little free programming at night, what goes first when the job situation gets tough?

And while all night coding sessions are fun in the teens and twenties (I know; I’ve been there) what do you do when you get older and settle down – and the rent is due, and the kids need new school supplies in September?

Goodbye Open Source – and hello, closed source (paid) programming.

Now there are exceptions to this: the people that work on some of the most popular software are doing well, and some can make decent money. But compare those somewhat rare exceptions to the majority of people working on Open Source – and needing ‘real’ jobs as well.

And then compare the ceiling for those people: how many of those OS people will ever reach a Larry Ellison or Bill Gates in earnings?

I embrace Open Source. I think it is the future for software. And the quality is there (notice Apple’s success in using the Open Source FreeBSD operating system for the Mac). But obviously, there must be money in it. So here’s some ideas:

  • Companies can be scared easily (such as with the FUD from Microsoft on patent infringement). We need someone to certify, insure, or otherwise provide legal comfort to allay their fears, and encourage them to migrate.
  • We need to understand it better. The problem with Open Source is everyone wants to program, and no one wants to document. And if aficionados can’t understand it, then how can others? So reach out (ie pay money) and there will be no lack of people deciding to write documentation – and educating everyone on how to use all aspects of the software.
  • Support needs to be front and center. Start new companies that exist simply to provide support of OS products. Have them do a per-month or per-call fee, and see how popular OS gets (or make it easier – sell a bundled OS program for a small price, and include 1/2 hour of free tech support).
  • Focus, focus, focus. Until people agree on a single OS for each category (and for the operating system), then you have one big company (MS) against a rag-tag group of individuals. Guess who’ll win?

In reading this, it’s obvious the real issue – a centralized authority is needed to get cracking on getting Linux and Gimp and Open Office and other Open Source products out there in a professional manner. Some company that manages it all, from software to updates to tech, to programming to design to support, and makes gobs of money doing it. Somebody kinda like Microsoft.

Hey – maybe that’s why they’re so successful…

Cartoon Chimp? Obama? Well Played, New York Post!

Today my wife showed me a cartoon that was making the rounds, and promoting a lot of controversy.

For those of you not aware, the New York Post published this – and a lot of people are offended by what they perceive as racist (and possibly president-threatening) “art”.

However, of more interest were our opinions here at home:

  • My wife “got” it right away: the chimp was representing President Obama, and it was an obvious racial slur, as well as a non-too subtle reference to assassination. Coming from the sister company of Ultra-Conservative Fox News (both Rupert Murdoch properties), it made perfect sense.
  • I thought it was representing the idea that “any monkey” could put together a stimulus package, and just tied in with the local (Connecticut) shooting of a pet monkey. As for the reference to the “writer” of the bill, I saw no problem, as many people are involved in drafting this legislation (even if President Obama will eventually be called the “author” or “architect”).

Controversial Cartoon

Now you may agree or disagree with one of us (let’s face it, one of us is right, right?), but the more important fact is, we were split down the middle.

And here’s the REAL point: imagine that cartoon making its way through New York Post headquarters.

If my household was split 50/50 as to the meaning, weren’t the offices of NYP split?

Darn right.

So they knew they had something offensive (at least to a goodly percentage of people).

And they published it anyways.

So folks, you’ve been played.

Talk about how horrible it is.

Or talk about how inoffensive it is.

But just keep talking – PLEASE.

Because the New York Post could have held off on it – and didn’t. And they want you to talk. But don’t worry – I expect they had the apology drafted before the cartoon was even published.

And now as it settles down, they’re off to the next issue (“did you SEE the way Bradgelina looked at Jennifer at the Oscars?”)

Well played NYP – I’ve never read you, and I never will, but you obviously have no problem with slinging sleeze to get readers. In the ages old tradition of newspaper folk everywhere (whose motto is “if it bleeds, it leads”), you could have taken a moral stand, but chose to go the low-brow controversy route.

As for everyone else, pro AND con, you have a choice – fuel the (artificial) fire, or give it up.

Imagine if instead of accepting the apology, we see it for the sleeze it is, and hit NYP where it hurts, such as boycotting them, apology or no apology. Boycott them if you think they’re offensive. Boycott them if you think the cartoon is meaningless. But boycott them.

And imagine keeping it up – and sending a clear message to everyone everywhere manipulating you and your emotions.

Because if you don’t take a stand for people manipulating you deliberately, it will continue.

After all, people ARE talking, aren’t they?

Microsoft, Hackers, And The Xbox 360: We Have Our Brightest Minds Hard At Work

In an interview Monday, Larry Hryb, Chief Programmer of Xbox Live at Microsoft, announced that the problems being experienced from hackers with the online gaming platform Xbox Live were really the fault of the Internet. While declining to explain specifically what part the Internet played in the failure, he assured us that the bright minds at Microsoft were hard at work solving it.

In related news, President Barak Obama announced that the current financial crisis was the fault of ink manufacturers. While declining to explain specifically what part they played, he did indicate that by their not producing enough green ink, which could then be placed on little slips of paper and used to pay for goods and services, a financial crisis was caused. He assured us that the bright minds in the government were hard at work solving it.

Finally, the Big Three Detroit auto makers have announced in an interview that the current energy crisis is the fault of American highway developers. While declining to explain specifically what part they played, they did indicate that current highways led to inefficient vehicles. They assured us that the bright minds in the Auto Industry were hard at work solving it. Their proposal, involving a cross-country system of highways that would all go downhill, and allowing motorists to coast to their destinations, would save billions of dollars in gas each year.

Google Is The New Microsoft

Jason Lee Miller wrote a thought-provoking article on Google this weekend. In it, he highlights some of the less than savory things Google has been involved in, such as siding with Chinese government for business reasons, supporting Youtube and Google Book Search and their copyright infringements, and Google Japan paying bloggers, among other things.

For business people, this is not a surprise: despite a credo of “do no evil”, money talks, and any company needs to support its shareholders (who by the way are perfectly in their right to sue if they feel management is NOT making them enough money). So warm feelings always take a back seat to finance.

In the future, expect more of this from the Big G: one area I see a problem with shortly is the Android phone. While advertised as Open Source, Open Source from a business point of view is awkward: everything you create can be used by anyone else and improved. Without a proprietary product, you’re forced to be an also-ran, and few companies wish to go that route if possible.

My opinion? Google will use Open Source in Android to gain market share, then scale back to more proprietary tactics. Adding new (and closed) features would be a simple solution – after all, isn’t that how we all upgraded to Vista, and XP before it? I’d be perfectly happy running Win98 now if it supported all the newer devices properly (large hard drives, USB etc) – but with a closed system, I’m stuck with what they offer to me. So the only real choice is to upgrade. THAT’S what a closed system is for.

And just one more thought: ask any philosophy student, and they’ll be happy to explain that ‘evil’ is a relative concept. Or talk to both sides in a conflict about what (and who) is evil – and expect two different answers. So perhaps it’s just the case that OUR concept of ‘do no evil’ isn’t the same as Google’s.

Or Microsoft’s.